Adani Ports, JSW Infra: Nomura sees Q1FY27 EBITDA up

Why Adani Ports and JSW Infrastructure are in focus

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (Adani Ports) and JSW Infrastructure are back on investor watchlists after brokerages reiterated positive views on the two private port operators. Nomura kept its ‘Buy’ stance on both names, pointing to double-digit EBITDA growth expectations for the June quarter. The call is anchored in improving cargo throughput, particularly container and liquid cargo, and in the benefits of integrated logistics.

For markets, the immediate trigger is recent traffic data and broker updates, but the bigger issue is whether private port operators can consistently compound earnings as supply chains formalise and containerisation deepens. Nomura’s note also sits alongside other brokerage actions, including Jefferies raising its target price on Adani Ports.

Nomura’s Q1FY27 EBITDA growth estimates

Nomura estimates Adani Ports’ EBITDA will rise 16% year-on-year in Q1FY27. For JSW Infrastructure, Nomura expects EBITDA growth of 12% year-on-year in the same quarter. The brokerage linked the expected growth to higher cargo volumes and improving logistics operations.

The estimates matter because EBITDA is a key profitability and cash-flow proxy for port operators, especially when investors are tracking operating leverage from higher utilisation and better mix. The June quarter is also watched closely as it sets the tone for management guidance and full-year expectations.

Cargo traffic trends: Adani Ports’ quarter and May performance

Nomura highlighted that Adani Ports reported a 15% year-on-year increase in port traffic to 138 million tonnes during the quarter. The brokerage attributed this to “robust container traffic growth” of 17-18% and higher liquid cargo volumes after commissioning of the VLCC terminal at Mundra.

In monthly data, Adani Ports handled 48.3 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cargo in May 2026, up 16% year-on-year. Growth was led by liquid cargo volumes, which rose 33% year-on-year, and container volumes, which increased 17%.

Nomura also said Adani Ports’ cargo traffic grew 16% year-on-year in May, driven by strong growth in container and liquid cargo volumes. The brokerage’s view is that this momentum supports its near-term EBITDA growth expectations.

Broader industry context: India port traffic and mix

Nomura noted that India’s overall port traffic grew 3% year-on-year during April-May FY27. Within that, container volumes rose 8% year-on-year. The brokerage said this strength helped offset weaker petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL) and coal cargo.

This mix matters because container volumes are often associated with steadier demand patterns and operational efficiency, while bulk commodities can be more cyclical. The data points in the note suggest the container segment is doing more of the heavy lifting for overall growth during the early part of FY27.

Target prices and broker positioning

Nomura maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Adani Ports with a target price of ₹1,930 per share in one update. Separately, Nomura also cited target prices of ₹1,850 for Adani Ports and ₹340 for JSW Infrastructure in a coverage-related note.

Jefferies reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on Adani Ports and raised its target price to ₹2,160 per share. Jefferies said the new target implied an upside of more than 19% from Tuesday’s closing level. It also increased its FY28 and FY29 EBITDA estimates by 3-5%, citing a stronger outlook for container ports.

Long-term growth drivers Nomura is tracking for Adani Ports

Nomura highlighted Adani Ports management guidance for revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 19% and 18%, respectively, through FY31. It also said it expects Adani Ports to deliver a strong 19% EBITDA CAGR between FY26 and FY28, driven by ports, logistics, and marine segments.

The brokerage underlined Adani Ports’ market leadership, citing a 27% share of India’s port traffic and total capacity of 653 MT. It also pointed to the company’s integrated logistics network and “operating and logistics moat” as structural advantages supporting growth.

Sector growth assumptions used in brokerage models

Nomura projected Indian port traffic to expand at a 4.7% CAGR through FY30, broadly mirroring steady growth over the past five years. It also said container cargo could grow at a 7% CAGR over FY25-30, helped by factors such as ease of transportation and low penetration.

These assumptions are central to valuation frameworks for port stocks because they shape volume-led revenue expectations. They also influence how brokerages think about capacity additions, utilisation, and mix shifts toward containers.

Company guidance and financial guardrails referenced in the updates

The data provided also includes forward guidance indicating expected revenue growth between 15.8% and 22.2% for the fiscal year commencing April 1. It further states that EBITDA is projected to be in the range of ₹21,000-₹22,000 crore for fiscal 2026 (converted from ₹210-₹220 billion).

The same set of details notes that in fiscal 2025, revenue from the primary ports division increased by 12%, while the logistics segment rose 39%, driven by higher container and bulk cargo activity. These guidance and segment trends are typically watched for signals on mix and margin sustainability.

Key numbers snapshot

What investors are likely to track next

Near-term, investors are likely to track whether the cargo momentum seen in May sustains through the rest of the quarter, and how container and liquid cargo trends evolve. Updates on logistics execution also matter because broker commentary explicitly ties growth to improving logistics operations.

On the brokerage side, the spread of target prices and the reiterated ‘Buy’ calls indicate the market is focusing on earnings compounding potential rather than just one-month traffic prints. Any future management commentary on long-term CAGR guidance, capacity and utilisation, and segment performance across ports, logistics, and marine will remain key datapoints.

Conclusion

Nomura’s reiterated ‘Buy’ calls on Adani Ports and JSW Infrastructure rest on expectations of 16% and 12% year-on-year EBITDA growth in Q1FY27, supported by improving volumes and container-led trends. With May 2026 cargo data and sector traffic growth indicators in view, the next major cues will come from quarterly results and any reaffirmation of long-term guidance through FY31.