Reliance Industries Q4 FY25: Key levels to watch in 2026

Why Reliance is in focus after Q4

Reliance Industries (RIL) moved sharply after its March-quarter (Q4 FY25) numbers beat expectations, prompting fresh brokerage upgrades and renewed trading interest. Yet, technical analysts continue to flag a corrective setup on the daily charts, keeping the near-term outlook cautious despite the earnings-driven spike. For traders, the stock’s behaviour around ₹1,300 and ₹1,360 is emerging as the immediate tell.

The stock’s move also matters because of its index weight. In one session where the Sensex rallied over 1,000 points, Reliance alone was cited as contributing around 421 points to the surge.

Monday’s price action: levels seen on the tape

In intra-day trade on Monday, the stock hit a low of ₹1,311 and a high of ₹1,345. At around 10 AM, it was holding a gain of nearly 1% at ₹1,340.

Separate market updates also described a stronger post-results move, with RIL opening 2.5% higher at ₹1,332.35 on the BSE after ending 0.12% lower at ₹1,300.05 on Friday. In the first hour, it climbed as much as 3.3% to ₹1,343, while its market capitalisation crossed ₹18 lakh crore.

Technical view from Angel One: ₹1,300 is the base

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst, Technical and Derivatives Research at Angel One, said the stock is in a corrective phase and is struggling to move past its short-term exponential moving averages (20-day and 50-day) on the daily chart.

Krishan identified ₹1,300 as a critical support zone. He warned that a breakdown below ₹1,300 could weaken the chart structure and potentially open downside targets in the ₹1,250-₹1,230 range.

On the upside, he flagged neckline resistance near ₹1,360 as the key pivot. A sustained move above ₹1,360, he said, may revive buying interest with potential upside toward the bearish gap zone of ₹1,400-₹1,410 in the near term. Until a decisive breakout or breakdown, his base case is range-bound trade between ₹1,300 and ₹1,360.

Other chart calls: consolidation bands and breakout triggers

Other analysts also described a prolonged consolidation. One view said the stock has been moving in the ₹1,180-₹1,340 range for the last six months, and that a breakout on either side could lead to a further 100-150 point move.

A separate set of “key zones” placed support at ₹1,280 and resistance at ₹1,320, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) described as neutral. Under that framework, a breakout above ₹1,320 was seen as capable of triggering a short-term rally toward ₹1,345-₹1,360, while a breakdown below ₹1,280 was seen leading to weakness toward ₹1,250.

Where the stock sits versus past highs and lows

At current levels, RIL was cited as trading nearly 17% below its record high of ₹1,612 hit in January 2026. Another data point pegged its 52-week low at ₹1,108, registered in April last year.

In other trading references, RIL was described as being down 16.5% from its 52-week high of ₹1,608.95 touched on July 8, 2024, while having rebounded over 20% from its 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 hit on April 7, 2025.

Q4 FY25 numbers: what was reported versus estimates

Ahead of the results, brokerages were estimating consolidated revenue in the ₹2.7-₹2.8 trillion range (up to 10% year-on-year). Ebitda was seen at ₹44,000-₹45,000 crore (largely flat year-on-year), while net profit was pegged at ₹16,200-₹18,470 crore, implying a decline of up to 17% year-on-year. Analysts also expected margin pressure largely due to the O2C segment.

After the results, RIL reported net profit attributable to shareholders rising 2.4% to ₹19,407 crore. Quarterly revenue rose 8.8% year-on-year to ₹2.88 trillion, driven by digital services, retail, and O2C. Another report also cited revenue at ₹2.64 trillion, driven by telecom and retail.

Key monitorables highlighted by analysts

Analysts flagged three near-term monitorables repeatedly. First, the impact of rising crude oil prices on refining margins and petrochemical spreads in the O2C business. Second, Reliance Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) trajectory and subscriber additions. Third, retail margin expansion amid ongoing investments.

On balance sheet metrics, RIL’s consolidated net debt as of March 31, 2025 was reported at ₹1,17,083 crore, marginally higher than ₹1,16,281 crore as of December 31, 2024.

Brokerages after results: targets and the Jio thesis

Brokerages largely reiterated positive views after the quarter, with some raising target prices to as high as ₹1,700, implying 26.5% upside from the then-current levels. Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan reiterated “overweight” stances with target prices of ₹1,606 and ₹1,530, respectively. Nomura maintained a “Buy” rating and raised its target to ₹1,650, while Macquarie retained an “Outperform” rating with a target of ₹1,500.

Motilal Oswal said Reliance Jio could be the biggest growth driver, forecasting 21% annual EBITDA growth over FY25-27, driven by one more tariff hike, wireless market share gains, and the ramp-up of homes and enterprise businesses. Nomura also pointed to the scale-up of new energy, upcoming tariff hikes for Jio, and the potential IPO or listing of Jio as triggers, along with streamlining at Reliance Retail supporting growth.

Broader market setup: GIFT Nifty levels to watch

Separately, the market setup was described as cautious with potential volatility. US markets edged lower on persistent energy crisis fears and mixed corporate earnings, while the GIFT Nifty traded near 24,265, up 107 points (0.44%) from the previous day’s low.

A key risk level was also flagged for the index: if Nifty fails to hold 24,150 early in the session, a slide toward 24,000 was described as possible regardless of the opening gap.

Key facts at a glance

What to watch next

The post-results spike has improved sentiment, but multiple technical readings still cluster around a tight band of supports and resistances. For traders, the immediate question is whether ₹1,300 holds on declines and whether ₹1,360 is cleared decisively on rises.

On fundamentals, investors will continue to track the O2C margin backdrop amid crude volatility, Jio’s ARPU and subscriber metrics, and the pace of retail margin expansion. Any further brokerage note changes or segment updates could shape the next leg of price action, particularly if the stock breaks out of the ₹1,300-₹1,360 zone highlighted by analysts.