Reliance Industries Q4FY26 preview: 3 segments in focus

Reliance Industries heads into Q4FY26 with mixed cues

Reliance Industries (RIL) is expected to report a flattish March quarter (Q4FY26), with brokerages pointing to pressure in oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and relatively muted growth in the retail business. Analysts expect the telecom business, led by Jio, to remain steadier and partly offset weakness elsewhere. At the consolidated level, brokerages broadly peg revenue in the range of ₹270,000 crore to ₹280,000 crore, implying up to 10% year-on-year growth. Consolidated EBITDA is seen around ₹44,000-45,000 crore, largely flat year-on-year, while net profit is expected between ₹16,200 crore and ₹18,470 crore, a decline of up to 17% year-on-year. A key swing factor across estimates is the expected contraction in EBITDA margins, largely attributed to O2C headwinds. Investors are also expected to track management commentary on consumer businesses and capital allocation.

Q4FY26 results date: what the company has said

RIL is scheduled to announce its Q4FY26 results on Friday, April 24, 2026, according to the company’s exchange filing and the BSE results calendar. The board is set to meet to consider and approve standalone and consolidated audited financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026. The company has also said the board may recommend a dividend for the financial year ended March 31, 2026. This comes after a dividend of ₹15.50 per share and a 1:1 bonus issue in the past two years, and would be RIL’s first dividend of 2026. While RIL has not announced an official time for the Q4 release, historical trends over the past three quarters indicate the company has typically announced earnings after market hours, which sets expectations for a late-afternoon or evening release on April 24.

Street consensus: revenue growth, but profits under pressure

Across brokerage previews cited, the high-level picture is consistent: revenue growth supported by scale, but profitability constrained by energy-related headwinds and a slower retail margin trajectory. The consolidated revenue band cited is ₹270,000-280,000 crore. EBITDA expectations cluster around ₹44,000-45,000 crore, which suggests limited year-on-year growth and potential sequential softness in some estimates. Net profit estimates range from ₹16,200 crore to ₹18,470 crore, implying a year-on-year decline in most cases. The common thread is a sharp expected contraction in EBITDA margins, reflecting pressure in O2C and, to a lesser degree, retail.

Nomura: O2C and Retail muted, Jio steady

Nomura expects muted performance in RIL’s O2C and retail businesses in Q4FY26, while Jio is seen posting steady numbers. The brokerage estimates consolidated EBITDA at ₹44,450 crore, down 3% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year. Nomura attributes the drag to O2C EBITDA of ₹15,100 crore, down 9% quarter-on-quarter and flat year-on-year. It flags headwinds including high crude oil premiums, higher freight costs, higher insurance premiums, increased LPG output as per government guidelines (impacting refinery GRMs), fuel retailing loss, and K-G gas being diverted to priority sectors.

Nomura also expects Reliance Retail’s growth to remain slightly muted, with segment revenue at ₹91,050 crore (down 3% quarter-on-quarter, up 9% year-on-year) and EBITDA at ₹6,830 crore (down 1% quarter-on-quarter, up 5% year-on-year). On the consolidated line items, Nomura pegs revenue at ₹284,000 crore (up 7% quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-on-year) and net profit at ₹17,000 crore (down 9% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year). Another set of figures in the same preview stream pegs revenue at ₹284,000 crore, EBITDA at ₹44,050 crore, and net profit at ₹16,200 crore.

Kotak Institutional Equities: margin slump in focus

Kotak Institutional Equities expects consolidated Q4FY26 EBITDA to rise about 2.7% year-on-year (down 2.2% quarter-on-quarter) to ₹45,018.9 crore. Kotak also expects EBITDA margin to drop to 15.6%, a decline of 119 bps year-on-year and 179 bps quarter-on-quarter. In segment terms, it expects O2C EBITDA to be flat year-on-year, oil and gas EBITDA to decline 9.2% year-on-year, and retail EBITDA to rise 4.2%.

Kotak expects consolidated O2C EBITDA of ₹15,000 crore (flat year-on-year and down 8.9% quarter-on-quarter), citing energy market disruption due to the West Asia conflict. It also expects E&P EBITDA to decline further by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter (down 9.2% year-on-year) on lower KG-D6 volumes. For retail, it assumes revenue growth of 12% and consolidated retail EBITDA of ₹7,000 crore. Kotak’s consolidated revenue estimate is ₹289,000 crore (up 10.5% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter), with net profit at ₹18,468.6 crore (down 4.8% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter).

Systematix and PL Capital: Jio ARPU and energy costs in the frame

Systematix Group expects consolidated revenue to grow by about 8% year-on-year to ₹282,000 crore, with consolidated EBITDA expected to climb 8.5% year-on-year to ₹47,600 crore. It estimates net profit at ₹19,217 crore, a 1% decline year-on-year. Systematix also expects Jio’s revenue to grow about 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 0.6% increase in subscriber base and a roughly 1% sequential improvement in ARPU to around ₹216.

PL Capital, in its preview, points to pressure on standalone EBITDA, expecting a sequential decline to ₹14,150 crore due to higher freight costs linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, elevated gas costs from lower availability for captive use, and weak petchem spreads. PL Capital expects Jio’s EBITDA to rise 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by steady subscriber additions and a 1% sequential increase in ARPU to ₹215.8. It also expects retail EBITDA at around ₹6,870 crore, implying 5.6% year-on-year growth, but notes it remains under pressure.

O2C: why refining and petrochemicals are the key swing factors

The O2C business is central to near-term earnings sensitivity, and brokerages have highlighted multiple cost and policy factors that could compress margins. These include higher crude oil premiums and elevated freight and insurance costs. Nomura also flags increased LPG output under government guidelines, which can impact refinery gross refining margins (GRMs). Fuel retailing losses and diversion of K-G gas to priority sectors are also cited as headwinds.

Beyond the quarter’s immediate factors, the preview notes link disruption in energy markets to the West Asia conflict and shipping risks around key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, investors are likely to scrutinise segment disclosures and management commentary for how persistent these pressures are, and whether operational flexibility can offset some of the cost inflation.

Retail and Jio: steadier operations, but different margin stories

For retail, the tone across previews is cautious on profitability even where revenue growth remains positive. Nomura’s retail revenue estimate for Q4FY26 is ₹91,050 crore with EBITDA of ₹6,830 crore, implying sequential softness but year-on-year improvement. PL Capital and Systematix also characterise retail EBITDA as “under pressure”, even as they model modest year-on-year growth.

For Jio, the common expectation is steadier operating momentum, with ARPU inching up and subscriber additions continuing. Systematix models ARPU at around ₹216, while PL Capital pegs ARPU at ₹215.8. These are framed as sequential improvements of about 1%, contributing to quarter-on-quarter gains in Jio revenue and EBITDA.

What investors may watch beyond the numbers: dividend and capital allocation

Alongside Q4 performance, RIL’s dividend recommendation is a key event risk, given the company’s statement that the board may recommend a dividend for FY26. Investors are also expected to track commentary on consumer businesses and capital allocation. This matters because the preview notes explicitly position consumer and telecom performance as offsets to volatility in energy-linked earnings.

On the market side, RIL shares settled 1.61% higher at ₹1,365.10 on the BSE in the cited session, versus a previous close of ₹1,343.45. The company’s market capitalisation was cited at ₹1,847,317.84 crore.

Key brokerage estimates for Q4FY26 (as reported)

Q3FY26 as the immediate backdrop

RIL’s Q3FY26 numbers provide context for what brokerages are comparing against. One cited report puts Q3FY26 net profit at ₹18,645 crore with revenue from operations at ₹269,496 crore, while another cites profit after tax (attributable to owners and share of associates and JVs) at ₹22,290 crore. Segment snapshots cited for Q3FY26 include O2C EBITDA of ₹16,507 crore with segment revenue of ₹162,095 crore and margins at 10.2%. Retail’s quarterly revenue was cited at ₹97,605 crore with EBITDA at ₹6,770 crore and net profit at ₹3,551 crore. Jio Platforms reported net profit of ₹7,629 crore, and the updates also noted Jio 5G subscribers crossing 250 million and fixed broadband base crossing 25 million.

Conclusion: April 24 set to be about margins and messaging

The Q4FY26 preview points to a quarter where headline revenue growth may not translate into higher profitability, largely due to expected O2C margin pressure and only modest retail improvement. Jio is widely expected to remain steadier, supported by incremental ARPU gains and subscriber additions. With RIL’s board meeting scheduled for April 24, 2026, investors will watch not only segment-wise performance but also any dividend recommendation and management commentary on consumer businesses and capital allocation.