SBI Chairman maps Rs 1,094 tn capital need by 2036

The capital question behind Viksit Bharat

India’s ambition to reach the Viksit Bharat goal by 2047 is sharpening the focus on one constraint that sits behind every growth projection: capital mobilisation. State Bank of India (SBI) Chairman C S Setty said India would need “massive” funding to sustain an 8% to 9% growth path in the first leg of the plan. He quantified the requirement for the run-up to 2036 and broke it down by funding source, placing banks, bonds, and equity markets at the centre of the financing mix. The remarks come amid a broader public debate on what it takes to get to a $10 trillion economy, with business leaders offering their own timelines and assumptions. The common thread across these views is that India’s investment rate and the depth of its capital markets will matter as much as headline GDP growth.

Setty’s 2036 number: Rs 1,094 trillion

Speaking at an event organised by the Securities and Exchange Board of India and the National Institute of Securities Markets, Setty said India would need Rs 1,094 trillion to ensure average annual growth of 8% to 9% by 2036 under the government’s Viksit Bharat plan. He also referenced longer-horizon estimates suggesting Rs 3,000 trillion to Rs 3,500 trillion of investment requirements over the coming decades to achieve the 2047 goal. Within that multi-decade buildout, he said Rs 600 trillion to Rs 650 trillion would need to be mobilised by 2035 alone.

Setty’s 2036 framing linked growth to an explicit investment-rate target. He said the investment rate would need to rise to 35% by 2036, about 200 basis points higher than current levels referenced for 2024. In his formulation, higher investment without destabilising external balances requires higher domestic savings, and he set out a savings-rate marker to match.

Savings rate, CAD guardrails, and the “extra” savings need

Setty said domestic savings rates would have to rise by 350 basis points to 33.5% by 2036, so that the current account deficit (CAD) stays around 1.5% of GDP, which he described as a long-term sustainable level. He also said a “back of the envelope” calculation shows capital markets must gear up for an additional supply of savings of about 3.5% of GDP over and above current annual inflows.

The emphasis on shifting participation towards deeper, more liquid markets was explicit. Setty said investors would have to move away from derivatives markets to spot transactions for more depth and liquidity, linking market structure to the financing challenge.

Where the money is expected to come from

Setty provided a split of the required financing, highlighting the scale expected from each channel by 2036. He said Rs 323 trillion would have to come from banks, while equity markets would need to generate Rs 643 trillion. On the bond side, he said a higher investment rate of 35% would require at least Rs 127 trillion of funds in corporate bonds, and he referenced an assumption of the corporate bond market at around 30% of GDP.

He also described the debt-to-equity balance embedded in the plan. When aggregating bank borrowing and corporate bonds, he said that at a 70% debt-to-equity ratio, India would need equity mobilisation of Rs 643 trillion by 2036 to support the targeted growth.

The $10 trillion target and what it implies

The government’s stated aim is to become a $10 trillion economy with per capita income of $18,000 per annum by 2047, and to avoid the middle-income trap by sustaining 7% to 10% growth over the next 20 to 30 years. Setty cited the scale of the leap embedded in that target: GDP would have to grow nine times from $1.36 trillion (at the referenced point in the material), while per capita income would need to rise eight times from $1,392. He also referenced the World Bank’s high-income threshold of $14,005 per capita.

Separate projections in the material add detail on the macro assumptions behind a $10 trillion endpoint. One note said that even at the lowest assumed rate of rupee depreciation, the dollar could be INR 179.21 in 2047, implying that achieving $10 trillion would require GNI to grow more than 16 times in domestic currency terms from 2024-25 levels. It also stated that this would mean almost 13% annual nominal growth and 9% real growth, assuming 4% inflation.

Business leaders’ growth timelines: Ambani and Mittal

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani projected that India’s current GDP of about $1.5 trillion could reach $10 trillion within the next three decades, and he said he expects India to outgrow the world. He attributed the potential to stable leadership over the last 15 years and the buildout of physical and digital infrastructure, including 5G and AI capabilities. In the same remarks, he said he believes that in the next decade India will not import 80% of its energy.

Sunil Bharti Mittal also argued India needs to aim for a $15 trillion to $10 trillion economy, and contrasted India’s expected growth with a world that, in his view, could settle at 0.5% to 1% or even negative in some regions. He said the business community needs an enabling environment, committed government, and stability.

Infrastructure multiplier and financing tools under discussion

The material cited estimates by the Reserve Bank of India and the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy for an infrastructure multiplier of 2.5 to 3.5, meaning every rupee spent by the government on infrastructure could raise GDP by Rs 2.5 to Rs 3.5. It also included a policy suggestion to enable long-duration bond issuance (10 to 30 years) by harmonising stamp duties across states and setting transparent pricing benchmarks, framing this as important for greenfield infrastructure and climate projects.

A related view came from NaBFID managing director Rajkiran Rai, who said India needs to double the investment to reach the $10 trillion economy target by 2047, arguing the economy needs that scale of investment push.

SBI’s own growth ambition and market-share target

In separate remarks included in the provided material, SBI’s chairman spoke about the bank’s strategy for 2025 and beyond, outlining a target to capture 1% incremental market share annually. The same material described an objective for SBI to account for a quarter of India’s GDP in a future scenario: 25% of a projected $1 trillion economy, equating to about $1 trillion.

Key figures at a glance

Why the numbers matter for markets

Setty’s breakdown matters because it assigns a large share of the financing load to equity markets and bonds, not just to bank balance sheets. The stated need for deeper spot-market liquidity and a larger flow of long-term savings implies that market structure, participation, and product design will influence how smoothly such mobilisation can occur. The corporate bond number is also a reminder that the debt market has to do more than refinance existing issuers; it has to absorb incremental demand at scale.

The savings-rate marker and CAD target frame the growth plan within external-balance limits. If domestic savings rise as suggested, the dependence on external financing can remain consistent with the CAD level Setty cited. These parameters tie the growth debate back to the plumbing of financial markets: duration, pricing benchmarks, participation, and the capacity to fund long-gestation assets.

Conclusion

India’s $10 trillion ambition is increasingly being discussed in terms of specific financing channels and measurable market-capacity targets. SBI Chairman C S Setty’s Rs 1,094 trillion estimate for the run-up to 2036, along with his split across banks, bonds, and equity markets, puts numbers on what “capital for growth” could look like in practice. Alongside projections from business leaders and multiplier estimates for infrastructure spending, the discussion is converging on execution: raising the investment rate, lifting domestic savings, and expanding long-duration funding options. The next set of signposts will come from how policymakers and market institutions respond to the stated need for deeper spot markets, larger bond issuance capacity, and sustained equity mobilisation through 2036 and beyond.