UltraTech Cement: broker targets up to Rs 15,210 in 2026

What moved the stock and why it mattered

UltraTech Cement’s share price rose as much as 1.88% on the day to an intraday high of Rs 11,074.60. The move followed fresh commentary around the company’s growth ambitions and a cluster of brokerage updates. UltraTech said it is eyeing 7-8% sustainable volume growth in future years, linking demand to government infrastructure spending and urban housing. The company’s management also communicated a push to beat industry growth again in 2025-26, targeting growth of over 10% against an industry growth estimate of 6-7%.

Motilal Oswal: Buy call and market-share expectation

Motilal Oswal reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 15,000 per share and indicated a 15% upside in its valuation framework. In its note, the brokerage said the company has consistently outperformed industry growth, aided by organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. It expects UltraTech’s market share to rise to 32% by FY2028. Motilal Oswal also outlined expectations of a consolidated revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of about 12%/18%/22% over FY26-28, helped by about 10% volume CAGR and around 2 percentage point operating margin expansion to about 21% by FY28.

Elara Capital: Accumulate with a higher target

Elara Capital reiterated an Accumulate rating and raised its target price to Rs 14,553 from Rs 14,088. The firm said UltraTech is positioned to outpace industry growth as demand improves and recently added capacities ramp up through both organic and inorganic routes. Elara said it raised its EBITDA estimate by 7% for FY26E while largely retaining estimates for FY27E to FY28E. It also flagged risks including sub-par demand, weak cement prices, and a sharp rise in fuel prices.

Choice Institutional Equities: Buy, led by expansion visibility

Choice Institutional Equities maintained a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 15,210. The analysts cited aggressive capacity expansion plans, visibility on volume growth, and disciplined cost-efficiency measures. Choice highlighted planned capacity additions of around 8 million tonnes (MT) in Q4FY26 and 12 MT in FY27E. The brokerage also said expansion is expected to be largely funded through internal accruals, while pointing to a favourable sectoral pricing environment and demand growth expected from the southern market. On its target price, Choice estimated FY28E implied multiples of 19.0x EV/EBITDA, 4.5x P/BV and 31.7x P/E.

UBS: upgrade to Buy and a higher price target

UBS upgraded UltraTech Cement’s rating to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to Rs 13,000 from Rs 9,000. The UBS analyst cited UltraTech’s execution track record, positioning as a key beneficiary of industry demand, and its role in driving sector consolidation. UBS said UltraTech outperformed the industry in both volume and margin terms during a challenging nine-month period in FY2025. UBS also projected UltraTech’s volume market share rising from 26% in FY24 to 32% by FY30, and capacity market share rising from 22% in FY24 to 28% by FY30.

Management commentary: capacity, capex and integration focus

In a post-earnings conference call, CFO Atul Daga said UltraTech aims to grow over 10% in 2025-26 and expects the industry to grow 5% in the March quarter. He said demand was slow in October and November but picked up in December and is expected to increase further. Daga said the company will enter the next financial year with a capacity of nearly 185 million tonnes per annum, including acquired capacity of Kesoram Industries and India Cements. He also said UltraTech is in line to add 10 million to 15 million tonnes per annum of organic capacity in 2026.

Capex, debt and energy efficiency initiatives

UltraTech’s capex guidance included INR 9,000 crore for FY26, with FY27 capex expected to be marginally lower at INR 6,000-7,000 crore. Daga said India Cements’ capacity utilisation was around 57% in the December quarter, and UltraTech will take at least 12 months to improve its performance to a reasonable level. UltraTech increased its stake in India Cements to 55.49% in December, gaining control.

UltraTech also plans to increase waste heat recovery system capacity to 511 megawatts by FY27, which includes expansion planned at India Cements and Kesoram Industries. Of the 511 megawatts, 450 megawatts is for UltraTech. The company’s consolidated net debt is seen at INR 16,160 crore at the end of the open offer for India Cements, including INR 877 crore of India Cements’ debt and an open offer cost estimated at INR 3,142 crore. Daga also said India Cements’ cement prices are lower than UltraTech’s by INR 20-25 per bag.

Mixed Street view: targets span Rs 10,508 to Rs 15,210

Brokerage reactions were not uniform. InCred Equities maintained an ‘Add’ rating with a lower target price of Rs 12,190 and said it adjusted EBITDA estimates down by 7-12% for FY25-27. Nuvama maintained a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 11,238 (from Rs 11,773) and noted that weak realisations contributed to an EBITDA miss, with EBITDA per tonne at Rs 725 cited as the lowest in seven years in its note. Nomura maintained a Buy with a target of Rs 12,350, Bernstein had ‘Market Perform’ with Rs 10,508, Bank of America retained Buy but cut its target to Rs 12,300, and Goldman Sachs maintained Buy while reducing its target to Rs 11,720.

Key numbers at a glance

Why the debate centres on scale, pricing and margins

Across the reports, the common thread is that UltraTech’s near-term performance and medium-term earnings visibility are tied to capacity ramp-ups, integration of acquired businesses, and cost-efficiency initiatives. Several notes also link demand recovery to infrastructure and housing. At the same time, multiple brokerages explicitly flagged risks around cement pricing, demand softness, and fuel costs, and some reduced estimates or target prices after periods of weak realisations.

The next set of updates investors are likely to track, based on what has been stated in these notes, include execution on planned capacity additions, progress on improving India Cements’ utilisation and performance over the next 12 months, and delivery against the capex guidance for FY26 and FY27.