Vedanta demerger: $100bn vision, aluminium to 6 mt in 3.5 yrs

Agarwal’s $100 billion ambition for each unit

Vedanta Chairman Anil Agarwal has laid out an aggressive scale-up plan for the group’s businesses as the conglomerate moves towards a simplified, sector-focused listed structure. Speaking in media interactions and shareholder communication, Agarwal said each of the five Vedanta entities could eventually be worth $100 billion. He repeated the message in blunt terms, stating that “every demerged business will be worth $100 billion,” while also referring to an “intrinsic value” of $100 billion for each company.

The pitch is built around separating major verticals into independently listed companies, with each unit having its own board, management, and strategic priorities. Agarwal has positioned the move as a way to unlock value, maintain dividends, and expand capacity across commodities where Vedanta already has significant operating scale.

What has been listed and what the group will look like

Vedanta’s demerger process has already led to the listing of four new entities, according to the information shared: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Iron & Steel, Vedanta Oil & Gas, and Vedanta Power. Along with Vedanta Limited, the group will have five listed companies.

Separate reporting also describes a structure where, after the demerger, the base metals business will remain in Vedanta Ltd, while Vedanta Aluminium, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Steel and Iron, and Malco Energy will be other entities. Another update notes that the residual Vedanta Limited will house Hindustan Zinc. Taken together, the broad direction remains the same: sector-focused, pure-play listed businesses carved out of the current conglomerate.

Timeline: completion targeted by March 2026, other updates ongoing

On timing, one report states Vedanta’s demerger is targeted for completion by March 2026. This came alongside the note that the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) approved the plan to split Vedanta into five different listed entities.

In another update shared around the company’s Annual General Meeting, Agarwal said the demerger was progressing steadily and “should be completed by September,” adding that approvals were expected shortly. The article text does not specify a year for the September reference, so it should be read as part of the broader, ongoing process updates.

Aluminium at the centre: 3 mt to 6 mt in about 3.5 years

Agarwal has been particularly bullish on the aluminium business, describing it as the most valuable among the newly listed entities. He said Vedanta Aluminium’s production capacity would double from around 3 million tonnes currently to 6 million tonnes over the next three to three-and-a-half years.

He also stated that the company ultimately aims to expand aluminium capacity to 10 million tonnes within five years. In the same set of remarks, Agarwal said Vedanta is the “lowest-cost producer in the world” and “fully integrated,” linking the growth plan to structural cost advantages and backward integration.

EBITDA target cited for aluminium at current capacity

Alongside capacity expansion, Agarwal cited an earnings target for the aluminium vertical. He said Vedanta can scale to $1 billion EBITDA at the current production level of 3 million tonnes.

A transcript excerpt also indicates the $1 billion EBITDA figure was discussed as achievable “in the next 3 years or so” for aluminium. The article does not provide the underlying assumptions or commodity price context, so the statement stands as a management aspiration rather than a detailed forecast.

Oil and gas scale-up: 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day

In a letter to shareholders referenced in the article text, Agarwal said Vedanta Oil & Gas plans to scale to 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. The expansion is linked to an investment of $1 billion, and the business is described as India’s leading private sector upstream player.

While the operational timeline is not specified in the excerpt, the capacity range and investment figure indicate the group’s intention to push for materially higher volumes in a segment seen as central to India’s energy needs.

Investment plan: $10 billion over five years

Agarwal outlined an investment of $10 billion over the next five years. In a transcript-style segment, this is broken down as about $1 billion into aluminium, about $1 billion into oil and gas, about $1 billion into zinc and silver, and around $1 billion into iron and steel to build capacity.

The same broader communication emphasised that Vedanta intends to remain a dividend-paying entity while it pursues aggressive capex across key commodities.

What shareholders are told to expect in the demerger

Agarwal stated that once implemented, for every share held in Vedanta Ltd, each shareholder will receive one share in each of the four demerged companies. Another excerpt describes one share converting into “five share of the five demerge company,” reflecting the end-state of five listed businesses tied to the current structure.

The intent, as described, is that each new business will have its own investor base and clearer strategic focus, with the corporate structure simplified compared with a multi-vertical conglomerate.

Why the demerger matters for valuation and corporate focus

Agarwal has framed the demerger as preferable to asset sales or alternative restructuring, arguing it unlocks “full growth potential” across zinc, aluminium, oil and gas, power, and iron ore and steel. The plan is also presented as a way to manage debt, with one section noting an aim to cut group debt down to $1 billion to $1 billion within two years.

He also referenced Vedanta’s shareholder returns, stating that in the last five years, Vedanta has delivered a return of 300%. The article text does not specify the exact measurement basis, but it is cited as part of the value-creation narrative supporting the split.

Key figures and targets at a glance

Conclusion: big targets, with execution milestones ahead

Vedanta’s chairman has set out a clear headline goal: five sector-focused listed companies with the potential to scale to $100 billion each, while expanding aluminium to 6 million tonnes in about 3.5 years and aiming for 10 million tonnes within five years. The broader plan also includes oil and gas scaling to 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day and a $10 billion investment programme over five years.

The key near-term marker remains the completion timeline for the demerger, which has been described as targeted by March 2026 in one report, alongside management updates that further approvals are expected and the process is progressing.