Vedanta Stock Soars 28% in One Month, Market Cap Nears ₹3 Trillion

Introduction to Vedanta's Market Rally

Shares of Vedanta Ltd have demonstrated remarkable strength, hitting a new high of ₹759.30 on the BSE in intra-day trading on January 28, 2026. This surge occurred even as the broader market remained subdued, with the BSE Sensex trading lower. The metal and mining giant's stock has been on a consistent upward trajectory, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains. This sustained rally has resulted in a significant appreciation in its market value, drawing keen interest from investors and market analysts alike.

A Six-Day Winning Streak

The recent performance of Vedanta's stock has been exceptional. Over the last six trading sessions, the share price has soared by 13%. This momentum is part of a larger trend observed over the past month, during which the stock has zoomed by an impressive 28%. The long-term picture is even more striking. In the last six months, Vedanta's stock has skyrocketed by 72%. This performance stands in stark contrast to the benchmark BSE Sensex, which recorded a modest 1% rise during the same period, highlighting Vedanta's significant outperformance.

Market Capitalization Nears Milestone

The sharp increase in its stock price has propelled Vedanta's market capitalization (market cap) to the brink of a major milestone. During intra-day trade, the company's market cap touched ₹2.97 trillion, placing it just 1% away from the coveted ₹3 trillion mark. Achieving this would place Vedanta in an elite club of Indian companies. Currently, only 27 listed firms in India have a market cap exceeding ₹3 trillion. Within the metals sector, peers like Hindustan Zinc and JSW Steel have already reached this valuation.

The Hindustan Zinc Stake Sale

A primary catalyst for the recent rally was the company's strategic decision regarding its subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc. In the two trading days leading up to the new high, Vedanta's stock appreciated by 8%. This followed the board's proposal to sell up to 67 million equity shares of Hindustan Zinc, which represents 1.59% of the subsidiary's equity. The sale is planned through an offer for sale (OFS) with a floor price set at ₹685 per share. This transaction is expected to generate approximately ₹4,600 crore.

Rationale Behind the OFS

Vedanta has clearly stated its objective for the stake sale. The move is aimed at strengthening its balance sheet, deleveraging, and optimizing its overall capital structure. The OFS was scheduled to open for non-retail investors on January 28, 2026, and for retail investors on the following day. This proactive measure to bolster its financial position has been received positively by the market, reinforcing investor confidence in the management's strategy.

Analyst Perspectives on the Move

Market analysts have weighed in on the development. According to ICICI Securities, the OFS came as a surprise, given that Vedanta's balance sheet leverage was considered under control at approximately 1.4x Net Debt/EBITDA as of September 2025. The company has a stated target of reducing this to around 1x by FY27. The brokerage noted that if the proceeds from the OFS are utilized to retire debt at Vedanta's parent entity, it could pave the way for a dividend announcement in the near term, which would be a positive for shareholders.

Strong Quarterly Performance Expected

Adding to the positive sentiment, analysts at Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) have forecasted a strong Q3FY26 for Vedanta. They anticipate that higher volumes and favorable base metal prices, particularly from the key aluminium and zinc segments, will drive performance. The strength in these areas is expected to offset any weaker performance from the oil and gas division. Key factors to monitor going forward include updates on the company's planned demerger, expansion plans, and project commissioning timelines.

Favorable Commodity Prices and Profitability Outlook

The broader economic environment is also working in Vedanta's favor. Credit rating agency ICRA projects that Vedanta will report an operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (OPBITDA) in the range of ₹48,500-49,000 crore for FY2026. This optimistic forecast is based on expectations of higher profitability driven by an uptick in key commodity prices like zinc and aluminium. Furthermore, benefits from ongoing backward integration in the aluminium segment are expected to reduce production costs, while record-high silver prices are anticipated to provide an additional boost to profitability.

Conclusion

Vedanta's recent stock surge is a result of a combination of strategic corporate actions and favorable market conditions. The decision to monetize a portion of its stake in Hindustan Zinc to deleverage its balance sheet has been a significant positive trigger. This, coupled with strong expectations for quarterly earnings and a bullish outlook for commodity prices, has created a powerful tailwind for the stock. Investors will now be closely watching for updates on the company's demerger process and its ability to execute on its expansion plans to sustain this momentum.