Vikram Solar FY27 EBITDA seen 1.7x as cells ramp

What the CFO told CNBC-TV18

Vikram Solar CFO Ranjan Kumar Jindal told CNBC-TV18 that FY27 EBITDA is expected to be 1.7x higher than FY26 in absolute terms, even as the industry deals with pricing pressure and oversupply concerns. He described the module business as largely “pass-through”, where increases in input costs are typically matched by corresponding increases in revenue. At the same time, he flagged that not every cost line is fully passable, which can still hit the profit and loss account.

The commentary matters because it frames how the company is thinking about margin stability in a market where input costs are volatile and module pricing can soften quickly. Management also linked its medium-term margin stack to backward integration, including captive cells and plans for further integration across the value chain.

FY26 performance context: strong growth in profitability

Across the reported periods shared in the material, Vikram Solar posted sharp year-on-year improvements in revenue and profitability. For 9M FY26, revenue from operations was reported at ₹3,349 crore versus ₹2,230 crore in 9M FY25. 9M FY26 EBITDA stood at ₹682 crore versus ₹268 crore in 9M FY25, with EBITDA margin improving to 20.3% from 12%.

Profitability improved materially over the same nine-month window, with 9M FY26 PAT reported at ₹360 crore versus ₹49 crore in 9M FY25. The company also reported Q3 FY26 revenue at ₹1,166 crore versus ₹1,026 crore year-on-year.

For Q2 FY26, the company reported revenue of ₹1,110 crore (also cited as ₹1,109.9 crore) versus ₹573 crore in Q2 FY25. Q2 FY26 EBITDA was ₹235 crore, and PAT was about ₹129 crore (also cited as ₹128.48 crore and ₹128.50 crore). Module sales in Q2 FY26 were 784 MW compared with 271 MW in the year-ago quarter.

Margin outlook: per-unit margins anchored to Q4 FY26

On margins, the CFO indicated FY27 is expected to look similar to Q2 and Q4 of FY26 in terms of per-unit outcome, despite near-term noise around oversupply. In the exchange, the anchor points discussed were FY26 EBITDA margin of 19%, while Q4 was cited at 16%.

Jindal said the overall margin per unit basis is expected to remain what the company achieved in Q4 of the last financial year, while absolute EBITDA is expected to rise sharply. He also pointed to the signing of a long-term agreement for DCR sales, which he said should help recoup margins “a bit better.”

FY27 guidance: EBITDA expected 1.7x versus FY26

The headline guidance from the CFO was clear: FY27 EBITDA in absolute terms is expected to be 1.7x higher than FY26. In the conversation, management also framed this as a jump of about 70% more in absolute terms compared to FY26.

The company did not provide a full-year revenue guidance in the material provided. Instead, the directional indicators were tied to order book visibility, pass-through clauses, and the benefits expected from captive manufacturing over the next phases.

Order book visibility and the US export opportunity

Vikram Solar reported an order book of 11.15 GW as on 30 September 2025, and management stated this marked a 36% increase compared with 8.21 GW in the same period last year. The order book mix was described as 85% domestic and 15% exports.

On exports, the CFO said the company has a US export order book of 1 GW. He noted that the company is waiting for supply chains to be established and remains in touch with customers to “click” exports at an appropriate time. He also stated that Indian modules are competitive on pricing compared with modules manufactured in the US, and that demand exists to absorb modules.

Pass-through clauses and what they protect

A key investor-relevant detail shared was that 88% of the order book has a pass-through clause for cell prices. In practical terms, this is meant to protect margins if cell prices move sharply, because an increase in the cost is intended to be matched by higher revenue.

However, the CFO also acknowledged that some other bill-of-material items are not always pass-through and can remain a direct hit to profitability. The conversation and the notes highlighted aluminium and other BOM items in this context.

Raw material pressure: aluminium at $1,600 per ton

Management acknowledged the impact of higher aluminium prices. The CFO said aluminium prices had risen to $1,600 per ton, which impacted BOM costs at the plant level. He added that this was partly compensated through selling prices, aligning with the company’s description of the business as pass-through.

The company’s broader argument is that integration helps reduce sensitivity to cost shocks that cannot be fully passed through, especially when market pricing is under pressure.

Capacity expansion and backward integration roadmap

Vikram Solar’s capacity roadmap in the material included scaling module manufacturing capacity from 4.5 GW to 17.5 GW, and targeting 12 GW of cell manufacturing capacity by FY27. Execution is described as shifting to the Gangaikondan site, which is expected to house an additional 6 GW of module capacity and 12 GW of cell manufacturing capacity.

The first module lines at Gangaikondan are on track for commissioning in Q1 FY27, and the first solar cells are expected by December 2026. Management also referenced that captive cells become effective from June 2026, and FY28 would see a full year impact of captive cells.

In another integration update, the CFO said the board approved “macro integration” with a 6 GW wafer-ingot at ₹3,700 crore, with a corresponding second phase later to be in line with ALM3.

Balance sheet and operating metrics disclosed

The company stated that as at the close of the quarter, it was net debt free on a consolidated basis. It also disclosed gross debt of ₹80 crore and net worth of ₹2,950 crore.

Operationally, effective capacity utilisation was reported at 84% for Q2 and 87% for the half-year ended 30 September. For H1 FY26, the company disclosed revenue of ₹2,244 crore, EBITDA of ₹477 crore, PAT of ₹262 crore, and EPS of ₹8.02 (fully diluted), compared with EPS of ₹0.95 in H1 FY25.

Key numbers table

Market impact: what investors will track next

The immediate market read-through from management’s comments is that FY27 profitability is being positioned around two levers: stable per-unit margins and higher absolute scale. The pass-through structure covering 88% of the order book is also being highlighted as a cushion against cell price volatility.

At the same time, the CFO’s remarks show that not all costs are equally protected, with aluminium cited as a recent pressure point. As capacity expansion and cell integration move from plan to execution, the market is likely to track commissioning timelines for the Gangaikondan module lines in Q1 FY27 and the cell rollout expected by December 2026.

Analysis: why vertical integration is central to the FY27 story

Vikram Solar’s messaging ties together three themes: order book visibility, cost pass-through, and integration. In a business where pricing can soften during periods of oversupply, the ability to protect per-unit economics depends not only on contracts but also on internal cost structure.

That is where captive cells and the integration roadmap become central. Management’s repeated references to captive cells from June 2026 and a full-year benefit in FY28 indicate that the company is building a multi-year margin story rather than relying purely on near-term module pricing.

Conclusion

Vikram Solar’s CFO has guided to FY27 EBITDA being 1.7x higher than FY26, while indicating per-unit margins should remain in line with Q4 FY26 levels. Alongside a 1 GW US order book, the company’s near-term focus is on executing capacity additions and backward integration milestones, including module commissioning in Q1 FY27 and cell rollout expected by December 2026.