Bharti Airtel Q4FY26 Preview: ARPU at ₹256, steady ops

What analysts expect from Airtel’s March quarter

Bharti Airtel is expected to report a steady operational performance for the March quarter of FY26 (Q4FY26), supported by subscriber additions, continued premiumisation in wireless, and stable momentum in broadband. Brokerages tracking the company have highlighted improving subscriber mix and data monetisation as key offsets to seasonality and the quarter having fewer days sequentially. Expectations also lean on Airtel’s India wireless segment continuing to outperform peers on mobile broadband additions and ARPU improvement. On the consolidated front, analysts expect healthy revenue and operating profit trends, aided by stable Africa operations and traction in home broadband.

Fewer days in the quarter, but upgrades may cushion ARPU

A key theme in the Q4FY26 preview is the impact of two fewer days sequentially, which can affect usage and billing. However, brokerages expect this to be largely offset by higher 4G and 5G upgrades, better subscriber mix, and improving data monetisation. ICICI Securities expects ARPU to rise 4.4% year-on-year to ₹256, driven by premiumisation trends such as migration from 2G to 4G/5G, rising postpaid additions, and higher data consumption. At the same time, it expects ARPU to dip 1.1% sequentially due to the shorter quarter.

JM Financial Securities, meanwhile, expects wireless ARPU to remain flat sequentially at ₹259, arguing that subscriber upgrades and mix improvement can balance the fewer-days effect. The same note also flags that ARPU could decline sequentially to ₹255 from ₹259 in the December quarter, underlining that day-count and mix effects are being closely watched.

India revenue estimates: modest growth, mix matters

ICICI Securities expects Airtel’s India revenue to increase 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 7.1% year-on-year to ₹39,751.3 crore in Q4FY26. Within that, India mobile business revenue is projected at ₹28,600 crore, down 0.2% sequentially but up 7.5% annually. India EBITDA is estimated to grow 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year to ₹23,781.1 crore.

JM Financial’s estimates are directionally similar on wireless, with Airtel’s India wireless revenue expected to grow 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to ₹28,963.9 crore. It also expects EBITDA from the India wireless business to rise 1.5% sequentially to ₹17,585.6 crore. The two sets of estimates differ in scope and segment definitions, but both point to a steady quarter supported by upgrades and monetisation.

Subscriber additions: broadband users remain a focus

On operating metrics, JM Financial expects healthy subscriber additions in Q4FY26. It estimates mobile broadband subscriber additions of around 5 million during the quarter, compared with 5.2 million in the previous quarter. Overall subscriber additions are expected at nearly 4 million. These estimates align with the broader industry view that the pace of upgrades to 4G and 5G and the quality of net adds can be as important as headline subscriber growth.

Africa outlook: currency tailwinds in estimates

For the Africa business, ICICI Securities expects revenue to rise 2.5% sequentially and 31.1% year-on-year to US$1,700 million. EBITDA for Africa is expected to increase 3% quarter-on-quarter and 41.5% year-on-year to US$152 million. The brokerage attributes part of the improvement to appreciation in African currencies against the US dollar, alongside operational performance.

Profit expectations: sequential lift, year-on-year drop in one estimate

ICICI Securities expects net profit at ₹7,068.3 crore, implying a 6.6% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, it would represent a decline of around 36% over Q4FY25, as per the brokerage’s comparison base referenced in the preview.

What Q4FY25 delivered: strong reported numbers and ARPU at ₹245

Airtel’s Q4FY25 reported numbers provide context for the FY26 setup and the base effects discussed by analysts. For Q4FY25, the company reported consolidated revenue from operations of ₹47,876 crore and consolidated EBITDA of ₹27,404 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 57.2%. Consolidated net profit for the quarter was reported at ₹11,022 crore, up 432% year-on-year, while net profit excluding exceptional items was ₹5,223 crore, up 77% year-on-year.

Airtel reported ARPU of ₹245 in Q4FY25, unchanged in that quarter as per the company update cited. The company also said that smartphone customers increased by 6.6 million in the quarter, and its India customer base grew to 424 million. It announced a final dividend of ₹16 per share for FY25, and reported net debt to EBITDA at 1.86x, compared with 1.98x in December 2024.

Stock reaction after results: a brief snapshot

Following the announcement of Q4FY25 results, Airtel’s share price surged over 2% in early trade on May 14, with the stock touching ₹1,865 at 9:50 AM, up from a previous close of ₹1,820. The move was attributed in the report to the market reacting positively to the company’s profit and revenue growth, particularly from India.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: what matters for investors tracking FY26

For Q4FY26, the key debate is less about headline growth and more about the quality of growth. Brokerages are focusing on whether 4G and 5G upgrades, postpaid additions, and data consumption can sustain ARPU and EBITDA trajectory even when the quarter has fewer days. The Africa segment expectations, including the referenced currency appreciation effect, also matter because it can influence consolidated revenue and margins.

The Q4FY25 base is unusually strong in reported profit terms due to exceptional items referenced in the data, which can create sharp year-on-year swings in reported PAT comparisons. For investors, that makes operating metrics like ARPU, subscriber additions, and EBITDA progression more useful for tracking underlying momentum.

Conclusion

Brokerage previews for Bharti Airtel’s Q4FY26 point to a steady quarter, led by upgrades, subscriber mix improvement, and broadband traction, with ARPU expected around the mid-₹250s despite a shorter quarter. The next focus will be Airtel’s reported India revenue, wireless EBITDA movement, and how Africa’s performance translates into consolidated results under changing currency conditions.