India’s finished-steel imports doubled while exports halved

India’s finished-steel trade balance reversed from a 6.03 million-tonne surplus in FY21 to a 4.69 million-tonne deficit in FY25. Finished-steel imports increased from 4.75 million tonnes to 9.55 million tonnes, while exports declined from 10.78 million tonnes to 4.86 million tonnes despite growth in domestic production and consumption.

Why did India’s finished-steel trade balance reverse by FY25?

India became a net finished-steel importer in FY25 because imports rose 101% from FY21 while exports fell 55%. In FY21, finished-steel exports of 10.78 million tonnes exceeded imports of 4.75 million tonnes. By FY25, imports of 9.55 million tonnes exceeded exports of 4.86 million tonnes by 4.69 million tonnes.

The reversal occurred while India’s finished-steel production rose from 96 million tonnes in FY21 to 147 million tonnes in FY25, and final consumption increased from 95 million tonnes to 152 million tonnes. Finished steel is steel processed into usable products, including bars and sheets, whereas crude steel is an intermediate product. The comparison shows that higher aggregate production did not prevent import growth or preserve export volumes.

India’s rising domestic demand increased the market available to both domestic suppliers and imports. Final consumption grew 60% between FY21 and FY25, while domestic flat-steel consumption rose from 43.5 million tonnes to 71.0 million tonnes. Flat steel includes hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated sheets and coils used in automobiles, appliances, packaging and construction.

What drove India’s finished-steel imports to 9.55 million tonnes?

India’s finished-steel imports reached 9.55 million tonnes in FY25 because competitively priced overseas supply coincided with higher domestic demand, particularly for flat steel. Imports were 4.75 million tonnes in FY21 and 4.67 million tonnes in FY22, before increasing to 6.02 million tonnes in FY23, 8.32 million tonnes in FY24 and 9.55 million tonnes in FY25.

Non-alloy steel accounted for 6.94 million tonnes, or about 73%, of FY25 finished-steel imports, while alloy and stainless steel accounted for 2.61 million tonnes. Non-alloy steel is steel without specified proportions of added alloying elements beyond commercially produced steel. The increase was concentrated in this largest category, whose imports rose from 3.24 million tonnes in FY21 to 6.94 million tonnes in FY25.

China, South Korea and Japan were identified as sources of competitively priced overseas steel in FY25. The source attributes the increase to global steel oversupply, weak Chinese domestic demand, strong Indian consumption, limited domestic availability of certain grades and the price competitiveness of imports. These factors need to persist for imports to remain elevated, particularly if domestic product availability expands.

India’s product mix gives this dependency context. Long, or non-flat, steel represented 55% of domestic finished-steel production in FY25 at 81.0 million tonnes, compared with 65.6 million tonnes of flat steel. Flat-steel consumption grew at a 13.0% compound annual growth rate between FY21 and FY25, compared with 12.1% for long steel, increasing the importance of a segment served partly by imports.

Why did India’s finished-steel exports fall to 4.86 million tonnes?

India’s finished-steel exports fell to 4.86 million tonnes in FY25 because global oversupply, lower-priced Chinese steel, weaker demand in selected destinations and trade restrictions constrained shipments. Exports initially rose to 13.49 million tonnes in FY22 from 10.78 million tonnes in FY21, then fell to 6.72 million tonnes in FY23, recovered to 7.49 million tonnes in FY24 and declined again in FY25.

Non-alloy steel drove the FY25 decline. Non-alloy exports fell from 6.78 million tonnes in FY24 to 4.14 million tonnes in FY25, a reduction of 2.63 million tonnes. Alloy and stainless-steel exports increased only from 0.710 million tonnes to 0.714 million tonnes, leaving the larger non-alloy decline substantially unoffset.

The source identifies weak demand in the United Arab Emirates, Nepal and Türkiye, trade-remedy measures, tighter European Union import quotas and broader tariff and protectionist measures as constraints. The international market was also subdued: global finished-steel consumption declined 2% year on year to 1,718 million tonnes in CY25 after a further 2% decline in CY24.

India’s production expansion therefore had a larger domestic outlet in FY25. Crude-steel production rose from 104 million tonnes in FY21 to 152 million tonnes in FY25, while finished-steel production increased by 51 million tonnes. Higher output can support exports only when Indian producers remain competitive on price and product specifications, and destination markets provide sufficient demand and access.

How did domestic demand affect India’s finished-steel trade position?

India’s domestic demand absorbed more steel but did not eliminate imports of particular products and grades. Final consumption reached 152 million tonnes in FY25, compared with domestic finished-steel production of 147 million tonnes. This is not a direct trade calculation because it excludes inventory movements and differences in product coverage, but it indicates the narrow gap between domestic supply and use.

Infrastructure and construction was the largest consuming sector, using 97.4 million tonnes in FY25 out of 152.13 million tonnes in the end-user table, or about 64%. Real estate accounted for 37.5 million tonnes, roads for 19.5 million tonnes, water infrastructure for 10.2 million tonnes and railways for 9.7 million tonnes. Automotive steel consumption also rose from 8.6 million tonnes in FY21 to 13.7 million tonnes in FY25.

Demand was geographically concentrated. West India consumed 46.4 million tonnes in FY25 and North India consumed 42.1 million tonnes, together representing 58% of national consumption of 152.13 million tonnes. A sustained import requirement will depend on whether domestic capacity, product mix and grade availability keep pace with demand in these markets rather than on steelmaking capacity alone.

The National Steel Policy 2017 targets steelmaking capacity of 300 million tonnes by CY30 and per-capita finished-steel consumption of 160 kilograms. India’s per-capita finished-steel consumption was 109.2 kilograms in CY25, compared with the global average of 209 kilograms. The policy indicates further demand potential, while the FY25 trade result shows that capacity additions alone do not determine finished-steel trade performance.

What could change India’s finished-steel trade balance next?

India’s trade balance could change if import controls, domestic product availability, international prices and export-market demand shift. The source says safeguard duties of around 12% on certain steel products and stronger quality-control measures discouraged cheaper imports in FY26, while domestic production growth and a narrowing imported-to-domestic price gap also reduced reliance on overseas supply.

The later FY26 trade-growth figures in the source are not consistent. One passage reports a 13.4% year-on-year fall in imports and a 12.9% increase in exports, while a later passage reports a 31.7% import decline and 35.9% export growth. Both passages cite policy interventions, improved competitiveness, production availability and diversification into the Middle East, Europe and Southeast Asia, but the differing rates leave the scale of FY26 improvement unresolved.

Conclusion

India’s finished-steel imports doubled and exports more than halved between FY21 and FY25, changing a 6.03 million-tonne surplus into a 4.69 million-tonne deficit. The shift combined fast domestic consumption growth and competitively priced imports with an export market constrained by Chinese competition, weaker overseas demand and market-access restrictions.

The next evidence to watch is the reconciled FY26 import and export data, because the source reports conflicting year-on-year rates for both measures. The National Steel Policy 2017 capacity target of 300 million tonnes by CY30 provides a disclosed supply-expansion plan, but future trade performance will still depend on product mix, relative pricing, grade availability, global demand and destination-market restrictions.