Swiggy Q4: Brokerages see loss narrowing in FY26

What brokerages expect from Swiggy’s March-quarter results

Swiggy Ltd is expected to report strong revenue growth in the March quarter, helped by an expanding monthly transacting user base and higher gross order value across food delivery and Instamart. Brokerages, however, see profitability staying under pressure as the quick-commerce business adds capacity through new store openings. Higher depreciation and amortisation costs linked to this expansion are a key factor cited for muted margin improvement. The company is scheduled to declare its financial results for the quarter and year ended March on Friday, according to the report. The estimates reflect a market that is tracking growth in gross and net order value closely, while also watching whether cash burn moderates. A key debate among analysts is whether the loss trajectory improves sequentially even as competition in quick commerce remains intense.

Consensus numbers: revenue growth strong, losses still sizeable

The average of estimates from 10 brokerages pegs Swiggy’s consolidated net loss at INR 8.46 billion for the March quarter, narrowing from INR 10.81 billion a year ago. Swiggy had reported a net loss of around INR 10.55 billion in the December quarter, suggesting a potential sequential improvement if the consensus holds. Consolidated revenue for the March quarter is expected to rise about 44% year-on-year to nearly INR 64.00 billion. On a sequential basis, revenue is seen increasing by over 3%. The dispersion in estimates remains wide, highlighting uncertainty around cost lines and the pace of improvement in Instamart unit economics. Analysts have also flagged that incremental costs from network expansion can show up with a lag, particularly through depreciation and amortisation.

Estimate ranges show a wide spread on losses and revenue

Among the brokerages cited, the highest estimate for Swiggy’s net loss is INR 10.62 billion (ICICI Securities), while the lowest estimate is INR 2.70 billion (HDFC Securities). On revenue, the highest estimate is slightly below INR 67.00 billion (Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers), while the lowest is INR 57.44 billion (Kotak Securities). Such a large spread typically indicates differing assumptions around promotional intensity, delivery costs, and the pace of store-level scaling in Instamart. It also reflects varied expectations on how quickly fixed costs get absorbed as order volumes rise. In recent quarters, Swiggy’s reported trajectory has shown strong growth but uneven profitability, keeping forecast sensitivity high.

EBITDA expectations: losses projected to remain elevated

Swiggy is expected to report an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) loss of INR 6.96 billion, based on the average of estimates from nine brokerages. HDFC Securities has the highest estimate for EBITDA loss at INR 7.80 billion, while Kotak Securities has the lowest projection at nearly INR 5.00 billion. Brokerages have linked the EBITDA outcome to Instamart’s store openings, which can raise operating costs and also push up depreciation and amortisation. Increased competition in quick commerce is another factor that could weigh on margins, particularly if customer acquisition spending stays high. Even with improving order value and user metrics, the cost of expansion remains the swing variable for quarterly profitability.

Operating metrics in focus: food delivery versus Instamart

HDFC Securities expects Swiggy, which it says has a 43% market share in India’s online food delivery business, to have registered 19% year-on-year growth in food delivery gross order value and 80% year-on-year growth in quick commerce gross order value. The quick commerce business under the Instamart brand is expected to have registered 62% year-on-year growth in net order value, HDFC Securities said. Typically, the quick commerce vertical accounts for around 17% of Swiggy’s total revenue, according to the same brokerage view in the report. The average order value is estimated at around INR 453 for food delivery and INR 740 for quick commerce. Monthly transacting users are estimated to have risen 23% year-on-year for food deliveries and 28% year-on-year for quick commerce.

A key risk flag: potential sequential softness in food delivery GOV

Nuvama Wealth Management cautioned that Swiggy’s gross order value in the food delivery business may decline marginally on quarter. That warning sits alongside broader optimism among most brokerages on Instamart’s sequential improvement in gross and net order value. The report notes that this improvement in Instamart is expected to support sequential narrowing of losses in the March quarter. Still, the same expansion that lifts order volume can pressure profitability if it requires higher discounts, marketing, and delivery capacity additions. Analysts are also watching how much of demand is driven by promotions versus repeat behaviour, because that affects the sustainability of contribution margins.

Market reaction and what analysts are debating on valuation

In one trading session referenced, Swiggy shares fell as much as 8% to INR 302.25, from a prior close of INR 327, amid weak quarterly earnings and price target cuts. Separately, another update in the provided text notes the stock closed 0.2% lower at INR 314.4 on NSE after results. The commentary around valuation suggests “valuation support” exists, but a re-rating depends on clearer visibility on profit improvement. Brokerages have described Swiggy’s outlook as mixed, with steady food delivery execution and improving margins offset by moderated quick commerce expansion under intense competition. One brokerage note said losses are expected to improve gradually, with “losses peaking” and a targeted breakeven timeline of Q1FY27. Morgan Stanley, as cited, pointed to food delivery gross order value growth sustaining in an 18-20% range and an adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 3%, with a medium-term target of 5% still intact.

Recent reported performance: Oct-Dec 2025 and Q4 FY25 context

Swiggy reported for the October-December 2025 period that net loss widened to INR 10.64 billion, while revenue grew 54% year-on-year to INR 61.48 billion. The text also states Instamart added 37 dark stores during that quarter.

For Q4 FY25 (March quarter), Swiggy reported a net loss of INR 10.81 billion, compared with INR 5.55 billion a year earlier, while revenue from operations rose 44.8% year-on-year to INR 44.10 billion. EBITDA loss widened to INR 9.62 billion from INR 4.85 billion a year back. Platform gross order value rose 40% year-on-year to INR 128.88 billion; food delivery gross order value increased 17.6% year-on-year to INR 73.47 billion; and Instamart gross order value grew 101% year-on-year to INR 46.70 billion. The company also disclosed monthly transacting users rose 35% year-on-year to 19.8 million, and its out-of-home consumption business turned profitable with gross order value growth of 42% year-on-year.

Key numbers at a glance

Why this quarter matters for investors tracking delivery stocks

The March quarter is expected to provide a clearer read on whether Swiggy can sustain high growth while gradually narrowing losses, especially with Instamart scaling up. Brokerages have signalled that depreciation and amortisation could rise as new stores are opened, making accounting profitability harder even if unit economics improve. At the same time, improving order values and user growth can support better absorption of fixed costs if demand remains strong. Investors are likely to focus on how much Instamart contributes to consolidated revenue and whether its losses widen due to expansion. Commentary on competitive intensity, especially in quick commerce, also matters because it can reshape discounting and delivery-cost dynamics across the sector. With the company set to announce results on Friday, the market will be watching the gap between consensus expectations and reported numbers, and any update tied to the stated timeline for breakeven around Q1FY27.

Conclusion

Swiggy’s March-quarter preview points to strong revenue growth, with brokerages expecting losses to narrow year-on-year but remain meaningful due to Instamart expansion-linked costs. The results due on Friday should clarify whether sequential loss reduction is on track alongside user and order-value momentum, particularly in quick commerce.