India’s mobile broadband market projected at Rs 5,10,000 crore

India’s mobile broadband market is projected to grow from Rs 2,30,000 crore in FY2026 to Rs 5,10,000 crore in FY2031, supported by a projected increase in mobile broadband customers from 1,002.3 million to 1,339.4 million and monthly average revenue per user, or ARPU, to Rs 326.4. Rural migration, rising data consumption and tariff-led monetisation are the disclosed foundations of the forecast.

What will take India’s mobile broadband market to Rs 5,10,000 crore by FY2031?

India’s mobile broadband market is expected to reach Rs 5,10,000 crore in FY2031 because both the broadband customer base and monthly revenue per customer are projected to increase. Mobile broadband, or MBB, means wireless broadband connections. The MBB market is projected to account for Rs 5,10,000 crore of the Rs 5,20,000 crore total Indian mobile connectivity market forecast for FY2031, compared with Rs 2,30,000 crore of a Rs 2,90,000 crore total market in FY2026.

The forecast requires 337.1 million additional MBB customers between FY2026 and FY2031. The MBB customer base is projected to rise from 1,002.3 million in FY2026 to 1,339.4 million in FY2031, when it would represent 98.01% of total mobile customers and 87.82% of India’s population. This means the projection relies on migration from non-broadband mobile services as well as higher spending by broadband customers.

The Rs 5,10,000 crore estimate depends on both variables developing as projected. Customer growth alone would not deliver the stated market value without ARPU increasing from Rs 199.5 per month in FY2026 to Rs 326.4 in FY2031. In turn, the ARPU path depends on greater data use, upgrades to higher-value plans and continued consumer demand for faster and more reliable connectivity.

Where can the MBB market find new customers?

The MBB market’s largest disclosed adoption opportunity is the difference between urban and rural broadband penetration. As of March 31, 2026, urban MBB penetration exceeded 110%, while rural penetration was about 45%. The comparison identifies rural areas as the main location for further adoption, although affordability and device access must improve for this gap to close.

India had 1,021.4 million MBB customers on June 30, 2026, up from 1,002.3 million on March 31, 2026. Yet 261.0 million mobile customers remained non-broadband users in Q1 FY2027, largely using 2G networks. The source identifies device affordability and accessibility as factors behind the rural-urban disparity, making conversion from 2G to 4G and 5G a condition for the projected customer increase.

Device availability provides one mechanism for that conversion. Smartphone users accounted for about 80% to 85% of mobile customers in Q1 FY2027, compared with about 20% to 25% in FY2016. The source also cites smart keypad phones priced below Rs 1,000 as an entry-level route to digital services and projects migration of all users to 4G or 5G devices by the end of FY2032 through affordability improvements, bundling and digital-inclusion programmes.

The earlier MBB transition shows the scale of expansion achieved to date. MBB customers rose from 132.2 million in FY2016 to 543.6 million in FY2019 and 1,002.3 million in FY2026. In FY2016, 87.20% of mobile customers used 2G and fewer than 10 million used 4G, while the March 2026 MBB base comprised 573.0 million 4G customers and 426.7 million 5G customers.

Why is MBB ARPU forecast to rise to Rs 326.4 a month?

MBB ARPU is forecast to reach Rs 326.4 per month in FY2031 because the source expects tariff increases, 5G premiumisation, a changing customer mix and greater data use to lift monthly revenue. ARPU rose from Rs 106.1 in FY2019 to Rs 199.5 in FY2026. Industry-wide tariff increases, including those in the second quarter of FY2025, are identified as one contributor to the recent rise.

Data consumption is the other stated monetisation input. Average wireless data usage increased from 9.1 gigabytes, or GB, per month in FY2019 to 26.7 GB in Q4 FY2026, and is projected to reach 59.2 GB by FY2031. The FY2031 figure is estimated blended usage for the full year, while the FY2026 figure is for the exit quarter; video streaming, social media and digital payments are identified as demand sources.

The forecast does not assume that revenue per GB rises. Average customer cost per GB was Rs 7.5 in Q4 FY2026, compared with Rs 8.0 in FY2019 and Rs 228.0 in FY2016. The FY2016 usage measure is not directly comparable because it was calculated across total customers, rather than wireless data subscribers used in the later periods; nevertheless, data usage moved from below 0.2 GB in FY2016 to 26.7 GB in Q4 FY2026.

Network quality and household income are further conditions for the ARPU forecast. Blended download speed rose from about 2.5 megabits per second, or Mbps, in January 2016 to more than 68 Mbps in December 2025, while average 5G download speed exceeded 180 Mbps. The source bases its ARPU forecast on global benchmarks and the relationship between ARPU and gross domestic product per capita, while citing rising median disposable income per capita as support for higher spending.

How concentrated is the MBB market and what supports expansion?

The MBB market is concentrated among four operators, with the three largest accounting for more than 97% of wireless broadband market share on June 30, 2026. Jio held 49.78%, Bharti Airtel held 35.47%, Vodafone Idea held 12.51% and BSNL held 2.20%. These figures include fixed-wireless access, or FWA, which represented 1.68% of total wireless broadband.

Jio carried about 60% of India’s wireless data traffic in FY2026 and added about 27 million net active mobility customers, excluding machine-to-machine connections, during that year. The source states that this was about three times the net additions of the second-ranked operator. Jio also had 1.4 times as many 4G and 5G customers as the second-largest operator on June 30, 2026.

Capacity investment is relevant to whether the MBB market’s data and ARPU assumptions continue. Jio held 26,800.8 megahertz of spectrum on June 30, 2026, with a 16.0-year average remaining life, and held 5G spectrum across low, mid and millimetre-wave bands in every circle. Its average download speed was 107.3 Mbps in Q3 FY2026, compared with 58.2 Mbps for the second operator, 25.1 Mbps for the third and 9.0 Mbps for the fourth.

Policy measures cited in the outlook include the Telecommunications Act 2023, which modernised licensing, simplified rights of way and introduced spectrum flexibility. Structured spectrum auctions, the waiver of spectrum usage charges and Digital Bharat Nidhi rural funding are also cited as supporting investment. These mechanisms matter because the forecast assumes continued 4G network densification and 5G deployment, including in rural and semi-urban areas.

Conclusion

India’s mobile broadband market projection combines a wider base of broadband users with higher revenue per user, rather than relying on subscriber growth alone. The FY2031 estimate of Rs 5,10,000 crore rests on 1,339.4 million MBB customers, monthly ARPU of Rs 326.4 and estimated monthly data usage of 59.2 GB, compared with the FY2026 base of Rs 2,30,000 crore, 1,002.3 million customers, Rs 199.5 ARPU and 26.7 GB in Q4 FY2026.

The disclosed plan to move all users to 4G or 5G devices by the end of FY2032 is a key point to watch, alongside rural conversion from the 261.0 million non-broadband customer base in Q1 FY2027. The forecast also depends on continued tariff, network-quality and disposable-income trends, as well as infrastructure investment supported by the Telecommunications Act 2023, spectrum mechanisms and rural-connectivity funding.