Nisus Finance says Dubai correction plateaued near 10% in 2026

Nisus Finance says Dubai’s residential price correction reached 10.3% from its February 2026 peak to September before plateauing, supported by an 18.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in ready-home sales in Q3 and a 14% increase in mortgage value during 9M 2026. Nisus nevertheless says transaction volumes remain soft and recovery is not yet confirmed.

What happened to Dubai property activity in 2026?

Dubai property activity weakened during 2026, with sales value down 23.5% year on year in 9M 2026 and sales transactions down 21.5% over the same period, according to Nisus. The company noted that the comparison was against a record 2025 base, while off-plan registrations fell 45.7% year on year in Q3, making that segment the clearest area of pressure.

Dubai Land Department monthly data cited by Nisus show sales value declined from Rs 1,81,000 crore in January to Rs 73,750 crore in May. Sales then fluctuated from Rs 69,750 crore to Rs 90,000 crore between June and September, remaining below the January level. The rupee values use the presentation’s approximate conversion rate of Rs 25 per dirham.

Residential prices fell fastest early in the period, according to the ValuStrat index presented by Nisus. The monthly correction was 6% in March, 2% in April and 1% in May, before slowing to 0.3% or less a month from June through September. The cumulative decline since February was 10.3%, while September prices were 4.5% lower year on year.

Why does Nisus consider the Dubai correction contained?

Nisus considers the correction contained because ready-home demand and mortgage funding increased while broader transaction volumes declined. Ready-home sales rose 18.5% in Q3 compared with Q2, mortgage value increased 14% in 9M 2026 to Rs 3,76,500 crore, office capital values rose 9.7% year on year in Q3, and rental contracts increased 6.8% in 9M 2026.

The company compares the approximately 10% February-to-September 2026 decline with an estimated 50% fall during the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and an estimated 29% decline during the 2014-2020 oil-slump and oversupply period. Nisus cautions that the comparisons are approximate and use differing index methods, but says the current episode has been a liquidity shock rather than a solvency event.

Nisus attributes the smaller decline to policy support, continuing mortgage availability, reduced new supply and broader demand from trade, office users and end-users. Its presentation says new launches were down 64% and handovers were delayed. Nisus also identifies a prolonged conflict, tighter liquidity and a supply wave as the three developments that would change its market view.

How did Nisus add Dubai assets and funding during the correction?

Nisus says it secured an additional funding line from Dubai Islamic Bank and added two buildings during the 2026 market reset. The company describes this as selective deployment backed by funding and price discipline, rather than evidence that the overall transaction market has recovered. It reported portfolio performance of more than 30% gross internal rate of return in US-dollar terms, including unrealised investments.

The Dubai acquisition disclosed for H1 FY27 was a Rs 343 crore investment in ready, income-generating mid-rise residential buildings in Jumeirah Garden City, central Dubai. Nisus says the buildings were acquired below prevailing market values in a government-led urban regeneration corridor. Its stated return mechanism is below-market entry, rental yield and potential capital appreciation.

Dubai accounted for 51% of Nisus’s Rs 673 crore deployment in H1 FY27, while India represented 49%. The five investments made across the two markets were nearly double the Rs 334 crore deployed in the prior-year period. That increase in overall deployment occurred despite Dubai sales value declining 23.5% year on year in 9M 2026.

What leadership capacity did Nisus add in the UAE?

Nisus added three senior executives to its UAE platform between June and October 2026: Oliver Castelino in June, Marwan Al Sarkal in July and Namrata Chauhan in October. Their stated responsibilities span capital raising, governance and regional access, and finance and operations, respectively.

Al Sarkal joined as Vice Chairman in July 2026, bringing governance and a regional network, according to Nisus. The company says he was previously Executive Chairman of the Sharjah Investment and Development Authority and has board experience across financial services, automotive, education, technology and agriculture. Nisus does not quantify any financial impact from his appointment.

Castelino leads global capital raising and institutional investor engagement for the UAE fund platform, with a mandate to widen the limited-partner base for the High Yield Growth Fund and Ni-YAM. Chauhan joined as Head of Finance and Operations with 16 years of experience in corporate finance, treasury, reporting and business partnering; her stated focus is capital efficiency, financial processes and operating discipline.

How does Nisus describe the current Dubai market phase?

Nisus describes the market as a six-to-twelve-month standoff rather than a rebound. That assessment reflects the contrast between the 18.5% Q3-versus-Q2 increase in ready-home sales and the 45.7% year-on-year fall in Q3 off-plan registrations. The company’s strategy therefore centres on ready, income-generating assets rather than a broad recovery in all property segments.

The company’s H1 FY27 acquisition in Jumeirah Garden City also shows the geographic focus of that approach: central Dubai, a government-led regeneration corridor and mid-rise residential buildings. Nisus has paired the Rs 343 crore asset purchase with the additional Dubai Islamic Bank funding line and expansion of its local office and team, which it says supports capacity for the next phase.

Conclusion

Nisus’s presentation argues that Dubai’s roughly 10% correction has been limited relative to the estimated 50% fall in 2008-09 and 29% decline in 2014-2020. The evidence it highlights is uneven: prices, ready-home demand, mortgage value and office capital values showed resilience, while 9M 2026 sales value, transactions and Q3 off-plan registrations fell materially.

The next evidence point is whether the market moves beyond the six-to-twelve-month standoff described by Nisus without a prolonged conflict, tighter liquidity or a supply wave. Operationally, Nisus says UAE private-credit fund structuring and regulatory set-up were under way in H2 FY27, while its expanded capital-raising team is mandated to broaden institutional participation in the UAE fund platform.