Anthem sees five launches add meaningfully in 3-4 years

Anthem Biosciences Limited expects five molecules commercialised in the past 18 months to contribute meaningfully over the next three to four years, supported by estimated aggregate medicine sales above $10 billion. Management said Anthem is currently the only supplier, although large pharmaceutical customers are expected to add second sources over time.

What will Anthem’s five recently commercialised molecules contribute?

Anthem expects its five recently commercialised molecules to make meaningful contributions over the next three to four years. Ajay Bhardwaj said estimated aggregate sales potential for the underlying medicines exceeds $10 billion, but management did not provide an Anthem revenue, volume or profit forecast for the group.

The five molecules reached commercial status during the past 18 months, according to Gawir Baig. They are an equal mix of active pharmaceutical ingredients, or APIs, and advanced intermediates, meaning Anthem’s manufacturing role differs across the portfolio.

Management linked the opportunity to activity involving the underlying assets in the last two quarters. Bhardwaj said some had been acquired by large pharmaceutical companies for significant sums, and that buyers will need material from Anthem if they execute their commercial plans.

The cited $10 billion is the estimated combined sales potential of the medicines, rather than Anthem’s own projected sales. Anthem did not disclose its supply share, contract values, pricing, production volumes or the timing of revenue from any individual programme.

Is Anthem the only supplier for these five programmes?

Anthem is currently the only supplier for the five commercial programmes, according to management. Bhardwaj said Anthem has not completed a technology transfer to another manufacturer, which supports its sole-supplier position at this stage.

That status is expected to change after large pharmaceutical companies acquire the assets. Bhardwaj said big pharma customers normally seek a second supplier, but management did not disclose when any customer could begin qualifying an alternative manufacturer.

The equal mix of APIs and advanced intermediates is relevant because the supplied component can vary by molecule. Anthem did not identify which of the five programmes involve an API and which involve an advanced intermediate, or specify the manufacturing step supplied for each product.

Management also tied commercial manufacturing to its earlier development relationships with biotechnology companies. It said some molecules started with Anthem producing the first milligram during discovery and have progressed to manufacturing at multiple-tonne scale after commercialisation.

Can the new launches offset Anthem’s patent-expiry exposure?

The five launches are not an immediate response to patent expiry because management identified 2032 as the first expiry affecting its relevant existing molecules. That timing is beyond the three-to-four-year period in which management expects the five newer molecules to become meaningful contributors.

The comparison places the two issues in separate periods: the five molecules went commercial over the past 18 months and could contribute within three to four years, while the first cited patent expiry is in 2032. Management did not quantify revenue at risk from that future expiry.

Anthem also has nine late-phase projects that could produce further commercial additions. Baig said clinical-trial outcomes should become clearer in the next 18 to 24 months, while some programmes could move from late-stage development to commercial supply in the current financial year.

Management declined to estimate how many of the nine projects will commercialise because Phase III trials can fail or require additional work. Bhardwaj said management expects at least a few may go commercial in the current financial year, subject to trial results and approval timing.

Which technologies support Anthem’s commercial pipeline?

Anthem’s commercial and late-stage work includes peptides, oligonucleotides, ribonucleic acid interference, or RNAi, and high-potency antibody-drug conjugates, or ADCs. Management said commercial supply includes some RNAi molecules, while recent commercial and late-stage work also spans peptides, oligonucleotides and high-potency ADCs.

Anthem has worked in these technologies since 2014 or 2015, Baig said. Over more than 10 years, the company has moved from laboratory-scale work to commercial-scale capacity in peptides, oligonucleotides and high-potency operations related to ADC programmes.

Peptide work extends beyond glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, products. Bhardwaj said Anthem is also working on peptide programmes in oncology and immunology, though the call did not disclose project counts, product names or revenue from these therapeutic areas.

Management has not forecast the share of FY31 revenue that could come from these technologies. It said programmes range from early-stage to late-stage development, and their progress from 2027 to 2031 will determine commercialisation and future production requirements.

How is Anthem preparing production capacity for new programmes?

Anthem maintained capital-expenditure guidance of about Rs 1,200 crore over the next two years for Phase 1 of Unit 4, a facility spread across 30 acres. Management said its Phase 1 capacity will be equivalent to Units 1, 2 and 3 combined.

Management expects at least 30% to 35% of the Rs 1,200 crore outlay to go to biology, with the remainder directed to chemistry. It said the allocation can change with customer demand and noted that the investment includes significant fermentation spending.

Unit 4 is expected to start around March 2028, according to management. A similarly sized Phase 2 is planned after Phase 1, but management said it will provide formal guidance only once the board approves that capital expenditure.

Anthem said current asset turns are about 1.2 to 1.3 times and that it aspires to return to about 1.5 times. Management also said Unit 4 will require time to ramp up after its expected March 2028 start, which may affect the pace of improvement.

Conclusion

Anthem’s disclosed pipeline combines five molecules commercialised in the past 18 months, estimated aggregate medicine sales potential above $10 billion and current sole-supplier status. The potential contribution over three to four years depends on customer execution, while eventual second-source qualification could alter Anthem’s supply position.

The next markers are clinical outcomes for nine late-phase projects over the next 18 to 24 months and management’s expectation that at least a few could become commercial in the current financial year. Management’s planned March 2028 Unit 4 start, backed by about Rs 1,200 crore for Phase 1, will also determine how additional production capacity ramps up.