Altius sees India's mobile data use more than double by FY31F

Altius projects Indian mobile data consumption to reach 59.2 GB per month per user in FY31F, 2.1 times the 28.4 GB recorded in Q1 FY27, as 5G connections are forecast to comprise 68.7% of mobile subscriptions. The presentation links the higher data requirement to rising smartphone use, network investment and macro-tower tenancy growth through March 2031.

How fast is Indian mobile data consumption projected to grow?

Indian mobile data consumption is projected to rise by 30.8 GB per month per user, from 28.4 GB in Q1 FY27 to 59.2 GB in FY31F. Altius describes this as 2.1 times growth, making data use the largest numerical demand indicator in its outlook for Indian telecom infrastructure.

The projected FY31F level also exceeds the 12.1 GB per month per user reported for FY21 by 47.1 GB. Altius lists over-the-top (OTT) and short-form video, digital payments, e-commerce, app use, online gaming and interactive content among the demand drivers. It also identifies affordable tariffs, 5G rollout, and internet penetration in rural and tier 2 and tier 3 areas as mechanisms behind higher usage.

The comparison indicates that the pace of consumption growth is expected to continue after the increase from 12.1 GB in FY21 to 28.4 GB in Q1 FY27. Altius does not provide annual growth rates for either interval, but its FY31F forecast implies that each active mobile user would consume more than twice the Q1 FY27 monthly volume.

How dominant could 5G become in India by FY31F?

5G connections are projected to account for 68.7% of Indian mobile subscriptions in FY31F, up 32.6 percentage points from 36.1% in Q1 FY27. Altius consequently shows 5G becoming the largest mobile-connection category by FY31F, ahead of the projected 29.4% share for 4G.

The presentation projects 4G's share to decline by 13.9 percentage points, while 2G falls by 18.3 percentage points between Q1 FY27 and FY31F. The FY31F stacked total is subject to rounding, and the presentation does not label a 3G share for that period. Altius presents the shift alongside its statement that India’s data growth requires stronger infrastructure support.

This forecast concerns the share of connections, rather than the number of 5G sites or users on any specific network. The 68.7% 5G projection nevertheless coincides with the forecast rise in monthly data use to 59.2 GB, linking a changing connection mix with a higher network-capacity requirement.

How many smartphone connections are expected by FY31F?

Indian smartphone connections are projected to reach 1,154 million in FY31F, compared with 935 million in Q2 FY27, an increase of 219 million or 1.2 times. Altius defines the smartphone base as unique SIM cards, or phone numbers where SIM cards are not used, registered on a mobile network and used in a smartphone at the end of the period.

The FY31F projection is 530 million above the 624 million smartphone connections recorded in FY21. This larger base is presented with the consumption forecast of 59.2 GB per month per user, meaning Altius’s demand outlook combines more smartphone connections with higher usage per connection rather than relying on either measure alone.

Altius also shows the digital economy rising from 14% of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY26 to 19% in FY30F. Its value is shown increasing from US$62,500 crore in FY23 to about US$1,25,000 crore in FY30F. The measure includes the traditional information and communications technology sector, digital platforms, and digitisation of brick-and-mortar sectors.

What infrastructure growth and operator spending does Altius cite?

India's macro-tower tenancies are projected to reach 1.266 million in March 2031, from 916,000 in September 2026, an increase of 350,000 that Altius describes as 1.4 times growth. These figures represent macro-tower tenancies by telecom operators and do not cover every type of connectivity infrastructure.

The March 2031 forecast follows an increase from 796,000 tenancies in March 2022 to 916,000 in September 2026, described as 1.2 times growth. Altius reported more than 258,000 pan-India towers, in-building sites and small-cell sites, alongside more than 316,000 tenancies, as of September 30, 2026. Its reported tenancy ratio was 1.2 times.

Altius also reproduces several media-reported operator investment plans. A Business Standard item dated August 11, 2026 said Vodafone Idea had Rs 6,400 crore of bank funding and had placed Rs 9,000 crore of capital-expenditure orders, including Rs 1,930 crore undertaken in Q1 FY27. The presentation reports that supplies and execution for those orders had commenced.

A Communications Today item dated August 4, 2026 said Bharti Airtel would continue annual capital expenditure of US$300 crore to US$400 crore for network expansion and digital infrastructure. A Business Standard item dated August 10, 2026 said Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited proposed Rs 77,000 crore of capital expenditure over five years, including 200,000 4G sites and 5G expansion, while targeting operational break-even in FY29 rather than FY32. These are cited operator plans and media statements, not Altius forecasts of contracted work.

Conclusion

Altius's outlook combines a 2.1-times increase in monthly data use to 59.2 GB, a 68.7% projected 5G subscription share, and macro-tower tenancies of 1.266 million by March 2031. Smartphone connections are forecast to rise from 935 million in Q2 FY27 to 1,154 million in FY31F, while 4G and 2G shares decline in the projected connection mix.

The next milestones disclosed in the presentation are execution of the cited operator programmes and progress toward the March 2031 tenancy forecast. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited's FY29 operational break-even target, Vodafone Idea's Rs 9,000 crore of cited orders, and the projected addition of 350,000 macro-tower tenancies from September 2026 to March 2031 provide specific points to monitor.