CMLL retains FY27 revenue growth guidance after Q2 loss

Caliber Mining and Logistics Limited retained FY27 revenue-growth guidance of 45–50% after a Rs 7.5115 crore Q2 FY27 profit-after-tax loss, with management citing Rs 1,176.50 crore of H1 revenue, a Rs 8,633.94 crore order book at 30 September 2026 and a post-monsoon ramp-up at three new contracts.

Why did CMLL retain its FY27 growth guidance?

CMLL retained its FY27 guidance because management expects three contracts won in Q1 FY27 to reach full ramp-up after the monsoon, alongside steady execution at existing sites. Management continues to target revenue growth of 45–50% year on year, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth of more than 35%, and profit after tax (PAT) growth of more than 35%.

The H1 FY27 revenue base was Rs 1,176.50 crore, up 89.1% from Rs 622.07 crore in H1 FY26. CMLL also reported normalised revenue of Rs 992.40 crore, up 59.5%, after excluding Rs 184.10 crore of diesel-cost pass-through. Its contracts compensate 100% of diesel-price increases above the tender assumption, which raises both revenue and fuel cost without adding to EBITDA.

Management also pointed to the seasonal pattern in FY26. H2 FY26 revenue was Rs 1,055.59 crore, or 1.7 times H1 FY26 revenue of Rs 622.07 crore, while H2 EBITDA of Rs 307.21 crore was 2.5 times the Rs 123.46 crore recorded in H1. The presentation describes H2 as the seasonally stronger half, making the outlook dependent on a larger second-half contribution.

How did CMLL's Q2 FY27 profitability change?

CMLL's Q2 FY27 profitability was lower sequentially, although it improved from Q2 FY26. Normalised EBITDA declined to Rs 73.20 crore in Q2 FY27 from Rs 110.3716 crore in Q1 FY27, while the normalised EBITDA margin fell to 16.60% from 20.02%. The Q2 margin nevertheless exceeded the 12.14% reported a year earlier.

CMLL reported a Q2 FY27 PAT loss of Rs 7.5115 crore, compared with a Rs 29.7604 crore PAT profit in Q1 FY27 and a Rs 14.2335 crore loss in Q2 FY26. H1 FY27 PAT was Rs 22.25 crore, below Rs 23.71 crore in H1 FY26, as depreciation and amortisation increased to Rs 97.97 crore from Rs 59.50 crore and finance costs rose to Rs 60.43 crore from Rs 34.03 crore.

The company reported H1 FY27 cash profit of Rs 100.83 crore, 1.6 times the Rs 63.29 crore in H1 FY26. This non-GAAP measure adds depreciation, amortisation and impairment loss on financial assets to PAT, then subtracts lease rentals. In H1 FY27, Rs 97.97 crore of depreciation and amortisation and Rs 4.16 crore of impairment were partly offset by Rs 23.55 crore of lease rentals.

What needs to happen for CMLL's H2 margins to recover?

CMLL says H2 FY27 margins should recover if post-monsoon volumes normalise and fleet deployed at new sites reaches full utilisation. Management linked this expectation to Dhoptala-2, Jayant-2 and Dudhichua-2, rather than disclosing a change in contract pricing or diesel-cost assumptions.

Operating volumes grew in H1 FY27, though road transport expanded more slowly than the mining and rake-loading activities. Overburden removal reached 76.49 million cubic metres, up 72% from 44.40 million cubic metres in H1 FY26, while coal extraction rose 41% to 2.31 million metric tonnes. Coal loaded on rail rakes increased 50% to 9.83 million metric tonnes, compared with 3% growth in road transportation to 4.86 million metric tonnes.

Q2 year-on-year volume growth was higher across the disclosed activities despite the sequential margin reduction. Q2 overburden removal was 33.12 million cubic metres, up 109%, and coal loaded on rakes reached 5.06 million metric tonnes, up 142%. Coal extraction rose 78% to 0.76 million metric tonnes, while road transport increased 42% to 2.44 million metric tonnes.

The expanded fleet has also increased depreciation and finance costs, which management says will be netted against H2 operating leverage in assessing PAT growth. Property, plant and equipment stood at Rs 1,777.08 crore on 30 September 2026, up 38% from Rs 1,291.33 crore on 31 March 2026.

How much revenue visibility does CMLL's order book provide?

CMLL had a Rs 8,633.94 crore closing order book, including goods and services tax, on 30 September 2026, spanning nine sites with an average tenure of 2.5 years. The balance rose from Rs 5,668 crore on 1 April 2026 after Rs 4,045 crore of additions, partly offset by Rs 1,079 crore executed during H1 FY27.

Mining represented Rs 8,326.63 crore of the closing balance, with logistics accounting for Rs 307.31 crore. Gouri Pouni New had the largest disclosed mining balance at Rs 1,805.06 crore, followed by Jayant-2 at Rs 1,432.05 crore and an existing Dudhichua-2 contract at Rs 1,368.77 crore.

The three contracts management identifies as central to FY27 guidance had disclosed balances of Rs 999.47 crore for Dhoptala-2, Rs 1,432.05 crore for Jayant-2 and Rs 1,102.34 crore for the Dudhichua-2 contract marked as new. Dhoptala-2 is scheduled from May 2026 to May 2031, Jayant-2 from June 2026 to September 2028, and the new Dudhichua-2 contract from August 2025 to August 2029.

Balance-sheet measures changed during the fleet build-out. Net debt to equity fell to 0.95 times on 30 September 2026 from 1.48 times on 31 March 2026, while net worth rose 77% to Rs 1,148.42 crore. Cash and bank balances increased to Rs 156.38 crore from Rs 98.15 crore over the same period.

Conclusion

CMLL's retained FY27 outlook combines a 45–50% revenue-growth target with H1 revenue of Rs 1,176.50 crore and a Rs 8,633.94 crore contracted order book. The key counterweight is Q2 FY27, when normalised EBITDA margin declined sequentially to 16.60% and PAT was a Rs 7.5115 crore loss despite year-on-year revenue and volume growth.

The next issue is whether fleet utilisation and volumes improve after the monsoon at Dhoptala-2, Jayant-2 and Dudhichua-2 as management plans. CMLL has highlighted the FY26 precedent, when H2 EBITDA reached Rs 307.21 crore versus Rs 123.46 crore in H1, while also acknowledging that higher depreciation and finance costs must be absorbed for its PAT target to be met.