Radico forecasts India spirits market at ₹4,38,100 crore by 2030

Radico Khaitan Limited projects India’s spirits market will reach ₹4,38,100 crore in 2030, up from ₹3,14,900 crore in 2025, with value growing at a 6.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Radico expects white spirits to lead category growth, with a projected 16.1% value CAGR during 2025-30.

How fast is India’s spirits market expected to grow?

India’s spirits market is projected to add ₹1,23,200 crore of value between 2025 and 2030, reaching ₹4,38,100 crore at a 6.8% CAGR. Industry volume is forecast to rise from 416 million cases in 2025 to 493 million cases in 2030, a 3.5% CAGR. The faster projected growth in value than volume is consistent with Radico’s premiumisation outlook.

Whisky is forecast to remain the largest category, but its value share is expected to decline to 62.2% in 2030 from 67.6% in 2025. Its volume share is similarly projected to move down to 62.1% from 63.0%, while white spirits are expected to gain share in both measures. This comparison shows that the forecast growth is not evenly spread across established categories.

Rum is also forecast to grow faster than the overall market in value terms, at a 7.1% CAGR, and its volume share is expected to increase from 12.5% to 13.2% by 2030. Brandy has the lowest projected value CAGR at 1.9%, while its volume share is expected to decline from 19.9% to 18.3%. Radico therefore presents the market as a shift toward selected faster-growing categories.

Why are white spirits forecast to grow faster?

White spirits are forecast to be the fastest-growing category because Radico links vodka and craft gin to younger consumers, premiumisation and changing social occasions. The category is projected to record a 9.8% volume CAGR and a 16.1% value CAGR during 2025-30, compared with 3.5% and 6.8%, respectively, for the full spirits industry.

Vodka recorded 21.1% volume growth and 22.4% value growth in 2025, according to Radico’s presentation. For 2025-30, vodka is projected to grow at a 10.5% volume CAGR and 16.5% value CAGR. Radico reports that vodka represented 6.3% of Indian-made foreign liquor, or IMFL, in Q2 FY27.

Flavoured vodka accounts for 75% of industry volume, according to the presentation, and vodka volumes are estimated to have grown at a CAGR of more than 20% between FY22 and FY26. Vodka’s share of total IMFL rose from 3.7% in FY25 to 4.5% in FY26 and 6.2% in H1 FY27. The source identifies this as growth beyond metros as well as in traditional urban markets.

What consumer trends underpin Radico’s outlook?

Radico attributes part of its outlook to demographics and income growth, noting that 15 million to 20 million consumers reach legal drinking age each year. India’s median age is below 30, while private consumption represented about 56% of gross domestic product and grew more than 7% in Q1 FY27, according to the presentation.

The population with annual gross income above US$10,000 is projected to rise from 40 million in 2023 to 88 million in 2028, a stated 17% CAGR. The US$5,000 to US$10,000 income group is expected to expand from 79 million to 146 million over the same period, at a 13% CAGR. Radico classifies the two brackets as luxury and premium, respectively.

India’s consumption of pure alcohol is stated at 3.3 litres per adult per year, compared with 3.7 litres in China, 5.0 litres globally, 9.2 litres in the United States and 10.0 litres in the United Kingdom. Radico also expects India’s urban share to rise from 35% to 50% by 2050. These indicators are presented as structural conditions behind category experimentation and premium consumption rather than as company forecasts.

How can state policy influence spirits growth?

State policy can influence pricing and market access because alcohol remains outside the goods and services tax, or GST, and contributes about 10% of states’ total revenue receipts and 20% of their own tax revenue, according to Radico. The presentation therefore identifies excise policy and distribution arrangements as material features of the industry’s operating environment.

Distribution differs by state: Maharashtra has private wholesale and retail, while Uttar Pradesh and Haryana also use private wholesale and retail structures. Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have government wholesale with private retail, whereas Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Kerala have government wholesale and retail. Radico says private wholesale markets offer greater flexibility on pricing, while corporation wholesale markets require state approval for pricing changes.

The presentation cites Uttar Pradesh’s 2026 dedicated liquor export policy and retail cash-and-carry measure. In Karnataka, a 2026 alcohol-by-intensity excise structure taxes liquor by actual alcohol strength rather than total volume, and Radico says consumer prices were reduced by a further 10% to 15%. Karnataka’s 2024 tax-slab rationalisation was also associated with a stated 10% to 15% reduction in premium-liquor consumer prices.

What does vodka growth mean for Radico?

Vodka growth gives Radico exposure through Magic Moments, which the company describes as India’s largest vodka brand with about 60% market share. Radico also calls Magic Moments the fifth-largest vodka globally. The brand reported 6.2 million cases in H1 FY27, up 46% from the comparable prior period.

Radico has added products across vodka price points and flavours, including Verve in FY12, Dazzle in FY22, Magic Moments Remix Pink in FY23 and Magic Moments Flavours of India in FY25. The company says vodka represents 19% of IMFL in Uttar Pradesh, 14% in Madhya Pradesh and 12% in Rajasthan. Those state figures exceed the 6.2% national IMFL share reported for H1 FY27, indicating differing levels of category penetration.

Conclusion

Radico’s industry outlook combines a projected ₹1,23,200 crore increase in spirits-market value during 2025-30 with a shift in category mix. Whisky remains the largest segment in 2030 under the forecast, but white spirits are projected to increase their value share by 5.7 percentage points to 16.6%, supported by a 16.1% value CAGR.

What to watch next is Radico’s disclosed FY27 plan for Prestige & Above portfolio volume growth of 30% and around 25% growth in its luxury and semi-luxury portfolio. Category indicators include vodka’s 6.2% share of total IMFL in H1 FY27, while policy developments in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka may affect distribution and consumer pricing.